IJTEMT, www.ijtemt.org
; ISSN: 2321-5518; Vol. II, Issue IV, Aug 2013
Banking Sector Reforms And Economic
Performance:
Analysis
Using Credit To Private Sector.
Angahar Jacob Sesugh.
Department
of Economics
Kwararafa
University, Wukari
Taraba State, Nigeria.
Abstract
This study focuses on the
implications of Credit to private Sector on the economic growth of
Nigeria. Reforms have been introduced
and implemented in Nigeria over the last three decades. The impact of these
reforms on the economic growth have not been well felt by the citizens. The
study is to determine the relationship between Credit to private Sector and
economic growth of Nigeria. Regression model was used to present the estimates
evaluated with T-test, F-test, DW-test and standard error estimates used to
test the level of significance. The study found out statistical significance
between Credit to Private Sector (CPS) and Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP)
in billions (N).furthermore, if there is one (1) million of Credit Private
Sector (CPS) in the economy, the real output (RGDP) of the economy will
increase by some significant percent of total increase in Credit to Private
Sector (CPS).The Nigerian banking sector should increase the amount of credit
given to private sector; this will in turn contributes greatly to the growth of
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP)bringing about increase in economic growth of
the economy at large. The research concludes that bank reforms have resulted in
making banks more efficient, reliable and their intermediating potentials have
also been revived.
Keywords: Bank, reforms, economic growth, credit and
private sector
Introduction
The relevance of
banks in the economy of any nation cannot be overemphasized. They are the
cornerstones of the economy of a country. The encyclopedia Americana
International edition put the position thus “economic activities as it is known
could not be sailing without the continuing flow of money and credit. The
economies of all market oriented nation depend on the efficient operation of
complex and delicately balanced systems of money and credit. Banks are
indispensable element in these systems. They provide the bulk of the money
supply as well as the primary means of facilitating the flow of credit”.
Consequently, it’s submitted that the economic wellbeing of a nation is a
function of advancement and development of her banking industry and the economy
at large.
The financial
deregulation in Nigeria that started in 1987 and the associated financial
innovations have generated an unprecedented degree of competition in the
banking industry. The deregulation initially pivoted powerful aid for the
expansion of both size and number of banking and non-banking institutions. The
consequent phenomenal increase in the number of banking and non-banking
institutions providing financial services led to increased competition amongst
various banking institutions, and between banks and non-banking financial
intermediaries all targeted at increasing the level of economic growth. Apart from the keen competition with
the range of financial activities, banks have also faced problems associated
with a persistent slowdown in economic activities viz economic growth, severe
political instability, virulent inflation, worsening economic financial
conditions of their corporate borrowers and increasing incidence of fraud and
embezzlement of funds. Hence, the continuing decline in the financial standard
of banks and increasing incidence of bank failure since deregulation have
raised question about the state and nature of the Nigerian banking sector.
Banks facilitate economic growth in variety
of ways. In the first instance, they act as financial intermediaries between
the surplus generating units and the deficit spending ones. Ubom (2009) This is
a twofold function involving the mobilization of saving from the former group
which are then channeled to the later to support productive economic
activities, Afolabi (2006). This intermediary role is important in two
respects, first, by pooling together savings that would have otherwise been
fragmented, banks are able to achieve economies of scale with potential benefit
for the users of such funds, secondly in the absence of banks each person or
business seeking credit facilities would have had to individually look for
those with such funds as negotiable with them directly.
Theoretical Framework and Literature Review
Banks occupy a vital position in the economic
life of nation, be it developed or developing. They are the pivot on which the
economy of any nation revolves.
The word “Bank” is derived from the Italian
word “Banco” meaning bench. The laws in Lombardy, the early bankers conducted
their businesses in the market place. (Goshit, 2008). According to Afolabi
(2006), a bank is a financial house established for the purpose of accepting
deposits and other related precious commodities from the public for safe
keeping as well as acting as intermediaries between owners of deposits funds or
lenders and users of the funds.
On the other hand, Bergrof and Roland (1995) describes banks as the most entity in a
country’s financial system of mobilizing funds. As a result they constitute the
centre piece of the financial system. While Ubom (2009) describes banks “as
financial intermediaries that assist in channeling funds from surplus economic
units to deficit one to facilitate business transaction and economic
developments in general.”
An Overview of the Banking Reforms in Nigeria
This research has
utilized reforms in the banking sector from the 1990s. This is because the
1980s reforms are outdated for current review. Therefore, prospective banking
sector reforms in Nigeria overtime include the following:
The Post SAP Era (1993)
This era witnessed a
brief period (1993) of renewed regulation (with interest and exchange rates
fixed subsequently, the period of guided deregulation. The deregulation
approach to monetary management and the resultant proliferation of banking and
financial institutions in the early 1990s brought about an increased number of
players far beyond what could be effectively managed by the CBN. As a result,
the financial industry witnessed serious waves of distress that caused crises
of confidence in the industry (Ayanwale 2007). The failed banks (Recovery of
Debts) and financial malpractice in Banks Decree was promulgated in 1994 to
sanitize the banking industry.
The Reform Lethargy (1993 - 1998)
This phase of reform
led to the reduction regulations. During this period the banking sector
suffered deep financial distress, beginning with the civilian democracy in
1999, while it led to the return to liberalization of the financial sectors,
accompanied with the adoption of distress resolution programmes. This era also
saw the introduction of universal banking which empowered the banks to operate
in all aspects of retail banking and non-banking financial markets (Hancock
1995).
Pre Soludu Era (1999 – 2004)
During this phase of
banking reforms, the number of banks in the economy did not change (i.e.
remained at 89). But it was noted that, the number of banks’ branches increased
from 2306 to 3383 (CBN statistical bulletin 2005). The total assets base of
banks increased within this phase from 15.6 billion dollars, 21.9 billion
dollars and 24.2 from 2001, 2002 and 2004 billion dollars respectively. The
capital and reserves of banks increase in billions of Naira from 394.6 in 2000
to 821.9 in 2002 and 1060.0 in 2004 (CBN statistical Bulletin 2005).
The Soludo Era (2004 – 2005)
The banking sector reforms which started in
2004 and focused on strengthening and consolidating the banking system, ended
on December 31st 2005 (CBN Briefs 2006 – 2007). The major emphasis
of the reforms on recapitalization and proactive regulation under a risk-based
or risk-focused supervision framework-has ensured competition and safety of the
system and has proactively positioned the industry to perform its role of
intermediation and economic development specifically, the successful
consolidation of the industry has ushered in a number of positive developments
to the banking sector in particular and economy at large (Soludo 2004).
The Soludo’s banking sector reforms is the
most well recognized reform since the history of the Nigerian banking sector.
The nature of these reforms and outcomes can be categorized under Bank
consolidations, Foreign exchange market stabilization, Interest rate restructuring,
and the pursuit of stabilization as against an inflationary control and
Currency control.
Post Soludo (2005 — 2006)
After the Soludo’s consolidation, several
issues occurred. Following the successful consolidation of the Nigerian banking
industry, a number of consolidation challenges emerged. These challenges relate
to the stake holders in the industry particularly the operators, regulatory
authorities and the government. In this case operators lost focus; regulators
became corrupt and failed in control, while government also became corrupt and
did not monitor.
Sanusi Era (2009 – 2012)
The CBN is
empowered to regulate both the micro and macro-economic policies on
behalf of the federal government
and has sweeping authority in financial matters to regulate the sector and
ensure the sustainability in the long run (Sanusi 2010). An important
responsibility of the central bank is to regulate the banking sector as well as
act as the lender of last resort. (CBN 2005)
On assumption of
office in June 2009, the CBN governor Mallam Sanusi Lamido Sanusi launched a
crusade aimed at sanitizing the banking sector which was at the verge of
collapse going by the result of the joint Audit - inducted by the banks
depositors insurance Scheme (NDIC 2010). Sanusi’s crusade was basically aimed
at sanitizing the sector and to streamline the banking industry along the lines
of good corporate governance and internationalizes its practice (Sanusi, 2010).
The reforms ensured that banks pay greater
attention to the design of their international process and procedures with
respect to risk management. In this perspective, the asset management initiative
was established in order to ensure that banks operate with international
standard. The ACM was an initiative which was adopted during the period of
financial crisis in 2007. The ACM initiative is basically established in order
to improve the capital and liquidity positions by taking over toxic assets from
banks and stimulate bank lending by equity injection in other to stabilize the
banking sector (Sanusi 2010). In a nutshell Uwu (2010) summarizes the four
basic pillars of Mallam Sanusi’s reforms to include ,enhancing the equity of
banks, establishing financial stability, ensuring that the financial sector
contributes to the real economy. It is important to note clearly that since
this era is still in process and has to end part of these reforms have been
achieved. The CBN governor, Barro (1991) held that the reforms in order to
achieve its goals must encapsulate a holistic set of strategies designed to
stabilize the banking sector and the economy as a whole. These strategies
include, fixing the problems the banks, tighter regulation of the banking
sector, adoption of a risk based supervision, effective consumer protection and
the reform of the CBN itself.
Broad Objectives of Banking Sector Reforms
The literature is replete with studies
which show that the objectives of financial, sector reforms are broadly the
same in most countries of sub-Sahara Africa, Levine and Zervos (1998), CBN
(2005) and several financial sector analysts summarized the objective to
include:
(a)
Less intervention in the market with the view to
promote a more efficient resources allocation.
(b)
Expending the saving mobilization base in support of
investment and growth through market base interest rates.
(c)
Improving the regulatory framework and procedures so as
to forestall distress.
(d)
Laying the basis for
minimal inflationary growth or
conclusive enabling environment.
Among the policy instruments
often employed to attain these objectives are:
i)
Foreign exchange markets and interest rates
deregulations.
ii)
Adaptation of market base approach to credit
allocations.
iii)
Pursuit of sustainable fiscal and monetary policies
iv)
Reforms or restructuring of financial markets via
legislative changes.
v)
Active use of prudential regulations and enforcement of capital
adequacy requirements.
Theoretical Framework on economic growth
Economic
literature as developed over time states two most basic growth theories that
have been developed since the thirties (Hahn 1964) as cited by Ubom (2009). The
theory that serves as the point of departure in economic survey and the one
that usually receives first consideration in any current discussion of modern
growth theory is one that relates the growth rate of economy’s aggregate output
to that of its capital stock. In this approach, capital is the only factor of
production explicitly considered, and it’s assumed that labour is determined
with capital in fixed proportions (Shapiro, 1985).
With regards to
this, the theories in this respect include the classical theories of economic
development and the endogenous growth model. Hence, it is essential to mobilize
domestic and foreign savings in order to generate adequate investment to
accelerate economic growth for an economy to take off
In this case the
increase in capacity output in Harrod-Domar growth involves a simple production
function that relates the generation of total output to the stock of capital
via the capital output ratio.(Jhinghan 2003) In contrast) the marginal capital
- output ratio ∆K/∆Y tells us how much additional capital to that flow of output.
The marginal ratio need not be equal to the average ratio as long as technology
changes over time.
Hence, this theory of growth came into a
conclusion that capital output ratio should borrow and fill the gap between
aggregate capital, savings and investment.
Correlates of Economic Reforms and
Economic Growth
There is fair
agreement in literature that economic reforms, especially what came to be
tagged structural adjustment program (SAP), have almost always been pressured
response to national financial distress whose foundation could be traced to
macroeconomic distortions Levine and Renelt (1992). While such distress
manifest mainly as deep economic problems (stagflation and huge external
debts), distortions are often evident in the pursuit of unsustainable fiscal,
monetary and exchange rate policies in addition to widespread government
intervention in enterprises that can best be handled by the private sector. In
general, several analysts believe that economic mal-adjustment is associated
with policy pursuits which depart from free market pricing policies (Chiber et
al, 1986; Ray, 1986).
Although there
exist an extensive body of literature on the link between finance sector
development, economic growth and poverty reduction, there is no consensus on
the effects of explanatory variables on economic growth. For example, these
were explained by King and Levine (1993), Levine and Zerves (1998), Rajan and
Zingales (1998) and Levine, Loayza and Beck (1999).
The direction of
causal relationship between economic growth and banking sector is one area of
contention amongst economists. Schumpeter (1934) for example was a strong
advocate of the role of the banking sector in stimulating economic growth and
stated that “the banker stands between those who wish to form new combinations
and the processors of productive means. He is essentially a phenomenon of
development, through only when no central authority directs the social process.
He makes possible the carrying out of new combinations in the name of exchange economy”.
Harrison et al (1999) however argue that banking activities and profitability
are functions of economic growth.
According to
Barvraktar and Wang (2006), banking sector openness had a direct and indirect
effect on economic growth through a combination of improvement in access to
financial services, and the efficiency of financial intermediaries as both of
these causes a lowering of financing which in turn stimulates capital
accumulation and economic growth. Bayraktar and Wang (2004) demonstrated that
the role of foreign banks was both statistically and economically insignificant
in increasing growth and improving the operations of local banks. Guryay et al
(2007) also finds that the effect of financial development or economic growth
of Northern Cyprus although positive was negligible.
Economics literature is replete with
possible qualitative and quantitative explanatory variables that influence the
growth rate of per capital output overtime Tuuli (2002) for example, uses the
ratio of banks claims on the private sector to GDP, annual consumer price
index, and the interest rate margin to analyze the relationship between finance
and economic growth. The model specified by Balogun’s (2007) theoretical model
were more expansive and included money supply, minimum rediscount rates,
private sector credit, ratio of banking sector credit to government, ratio of
stock market capitalization to credit to the private sector and exchange rates.
Methodology
The study covered
up to two decades and a period of 1990-2010, the pattern and plan of this
research work were based on historical design, as most of the data used for the
study are secondary data which were obtained from CBN bulletin The available
data for credit available to private sector (CPS) and Real Gross Domestic
Product for the period of 1990 - 2010 is presented using table to facilitate
easy understanding. The ordinary least square (OLS) is used for estimation and
tests for analysiss. The research adopted regression equation to estimate and
test for reliability.
Therefore, based on this research, the
following is formulated as hypothesis for this research:
H0: There
is no statistical significance between credit to private sector and the level
of economic growth.
Tools of Analysis
The method of analyzing data was the regression of analysis.
Here, the general regression equation is given as:
RGDP = β0 + β1X1
+ ui (1) RGDP = Real
Gross Domestic Product, β0 =
Constant Intercepts
β1 = Coefficient of Credit
availability to private sector
X1 =
Annual credit availability to
private sector,
Ui = Disturbance
or Error term.
The above
regression equation will be estimated using ordinary least square (OLS). In
verifying
also useful criteria for testing
bank performance Presentation of Results
on economic growth.
Table 2: The
results of the regression for the
two
models are shown below:
|
Functio nal
Forms
|
Consta nt B0
|
Regress ion Coeffici ent
|
Adj
|
F
|
Dw
|
|
CPS
|
|||||
|
Linear t-values
S.E
|
2.84 E-
14.765
24201.
958
|
0.818
6.202
0.000
|
0.6
52
|
38.46 5
|
0.8
09
|
|
Double log t-values
S.E
|
10.186
64.630
0.158
|
0.126
17.289
0.007
|
0.9
37
|
298.9 13
|
0.7
60
|
|
Years
|
RGD (Y) N
Billion
|
Credit to Private
Sector (N) X
|
|
1990
|
267,550.0
|
36,630,000
|
|
1991
|
265,379.9
|
45,330,000
|
|
1992
|
271,365.5
|
61,200,000
|
|
1993
|
273,833.3
|
92,500,000
|
|
1994
|
275,450.6
|
122,300,000
|
|
1995
|
281,407.4
|
185,600,000
|
|
1996
|
293,745.4
|
219,700,000
|
|
1997
|
302,022.5
|
272,500,000
|
|
1998
|
310,890.1
|
352,400,000
|
|
1999
|
312,183.5
|
455,200,000
|
|
2000
|
329,178.7
|
596,000,000
|
|
2001
|
356,994.3
|
9,167,525,300
|
|
2002
|
433,203.5
|
11,165,927,100
|
|
2003
|
477,533.0
|
13,158,426,800
|
|
2004
|
527,576.0
|
15,805,968,800
|
|
2005
|
561,931.4
|
22,060,678,100
|
|
2006
|
595,821.6
|
28,655.320,300
|
|
2007
|
634,251.1
|
44,675,412,400
|
|
2008
|
674,889.0
|
76,318,785,100
|
|
2009
|
716,949.7
|
184,630,440,000
|
|
2010
|
745,627.7
|
121,691,364,300
|
|
Mod
el
|
R
|
R2
|
Adj
R2
|
Std
Error Estim
ate
|
Durb in
Wats on
|
F
|
T
|
|
Resu
lts
|
0.8
83
|
0.7
79
|
0.7
67
|
0.067
33
|
1.68
9
|
63.
39
|
7.9
62
|
Table 1: Data Presentation
Table 3: Model Summary
The Durbin Watson
statistics which is used to test for the first order serial correlation for the
error term is given in the table 2 using
0.05 significant level for the D.W,
the dL = 1.221 and du = 1.420 are the upper and lower limits
respectively. For each of the model, there is a problem of the first order
serial correlation of the error term But the adjusted R value for the
double-log model is higher than that of the linear model.
The first order serial correlation for the
error terms has to be eliminated. When it is eliminated, the adjusted R value
will be reduced.
Source: CBN Statistical
Bulletin 2009 This
is the disadvantage of eliminating the first
order serial correlation. So the double log model
with
higher R value is used here.
In eliminating
the first order serial correlation for the error term in the double log model
the dependent and the independent variables in the previous double log model
were transformed to become.
Log RGDP2=log RGDP -log I and Log
CPS2 = log CPS -log CSPt. XO.588 (2)
Where 0.588 is the correlation
between the residual values and the lead residual values. Therefore, we obtain
the equation after double log is conducted to enable elimination of first order
serial correlation.
RDGP=4.42l+0.1 (3)
T* = (41.210) (7.962)
DW-test = (1.689)
Discussion
As presented
above, coefficient is 4.421 known as constant intercept shows that the
regression line did not pass through the origin. This implies that any
regression line that passes through the origin does implt efficiency. Hence, it
gives the value of RGDP when CP is equal to zero (0), while β1
coefficient is 0.1000, this implies that when the value of (PS increases by one
(l) unit, it would contribute 0.1000 unit to RGDP of the economy which is a
positive figure. Hence, the slope coefficient (CPS) based on the results above
predicts that if CPS increases by one (1) million naira, RGDP will increase by
N100,000. This result shows that the effect of CPS on RGDP is positive.
Therefore from the above analysis one can conclude that CPS as positive effects
on economic growth measured in RGDP of Nigerian economy. The E test shows that
if S.E (is < /2 the explanatory variable under study is a true parameter
Hence, it is statistically significant, from the above if applied. Therefore,
CPS has significant relationship with RGDP.
R2
value of 0.779, this means 77.9 percent of the variability in the RGDP is
explained by the CPS while the remaining 22 1 percent is caused by other factor
accounted by the error term. The Durbin Watson value finally is 1.689. The new
confidents limits of the DW is D = 1.201 and d = 1.411 since the size of the
sample is 20, DW. (1.689)> d (1.411) we now conclude that there is no first
order serial correlation in the error terms.
The F-statistic
value (F cal value) is 63.391, testing at 19(df) under 0.05(5%) level of significance.
we obtain the F- tab value as 5.98. since F-cal >F-tab we reject H and then
accept H1 which states that there is statistical significance
between the reforms in the banking sector and the level of economic growth
(RGDP) in Nigeria.
Since the t-cal (7 962) > t-tab (2.09),
we reject the null hypothesis and
conclude that the CPS coefficient or paramater is significant. The same
is applicable for the constant therefore, the estimated regression equation is
Log RGDPi = 4.421 + 0.100logi CPSi, I=1 …n.
The interpretation is, for every unit increase in the log of CPS, the log of
RGDP increase by 0.1 units.
Conclusion
In this study we attempted to measure
impact of bank reforms on economic growth in Nigeria from 1990-2010. More
specifically an inquiry was made on how CPS could lead to more growth of GDP in
Nigeria. Based on the methodology adopted for this study and findings, it is
concluded that CPS contributes significantly to economic growth for the period
under study; CPS has the capacity to increase GDP of the Nigerian economy. But
the rate of contribution depends on the amount of credit given to Private
sector in Nigeria. From economic literature other factors that accounted for
the 22.1% may be unavailability of credit, improper utilization of available
credit, among other factors.
Recommendations
Based on the
findings of this study, the following recommendations were made so as to
facilitate the effort being made to keep the Nigerian economy on growth path.
1.
The Nigerian banking sector should increase the amount
of credit given to the private sector; this will in turn contribute greatly to
the growth of GDP bringing about increase in economic growth of the economy at
large.
2.
This study recommends the need to strengthen and
encourage the existing microfinance banks so that they can serve the interest
and the need of small customers.
3.
With respect to consolidation, there is also need to
encourage efficiency and prevent consolidation that lead to situations where excessive
risks are generated and most importantly the consolidation of the entire
financial institution.
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Author’s Profile
Mr. Angahar Jacob Sesugh was born on the 15th
November 1989, attended Makurdi International
School, Makurdi, Benue State 1995-2001,
Federal Government College Vandeikya Benue
State 2001-2007, Kwararafa University Wukari,
Taraba State, 2007-2011, and obtained B.Sc
Economics, Currently a research student at Benue State
University Makurdi, Benue State. I am interested in research and academics.
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